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Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Mixed Inflation Data

It was a quiet week with no major surprises. Mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.

The most significant economic data released this week was the inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, looks at the price change for finished goods and services. Friday's release revealed that inflation has continued to rise in recent months. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 2.4% higher in July, up from an annual rate of increase of 2.3% in June. This matched the consensus forecast and was the highest level since September 2008.

By contrast, the Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products, which investors view as a little less indicative of the level of inflation in the economy as a whole. On Thursday, Core PPI was 2.7% higher in July, down from an annual rate of increase of 2.8% in June, and a little lower than expected. Since inflation is negative for bond yields, this report was mildly favorable for mortgage rates.

The JOLTS report measures job openings and labor turnover rates. Fed officials and investors value this data to help round out their views of the strength of the labor market. In June, there were 6.66 million job openings, which was close to the record levels seen in April. There were only 6.56 million people who reported that they were looking for work that month. It is rare to see more job openings than people seeking work. A large number of workers also willingly left their jobs. This is viewed as a sign of labor market strength, since people usually quit only if they expect that they can find better jobs.

Looking ahead, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of all economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator of growth. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, also will come out on Wednesday. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday.

Weekly Change

Mortgage rates

fell

0.03

Dow

fell

100

NASDAQ

rose

50

Calendar

Wed

8/15

Retail Sales

Wed

8/15

Industrial Production

Thu

8/16

Housing Starts

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Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: fed rate and mortgages
Posted by Jonathan White on August 10th, 2018 11:38 AM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

ECB Stimulus Disappoints

 

During a week packed with major economic news, the biggest story came from Europe. On Thursday, the ECB added less stimulus than expected, causing global bond yields to increase sharply. Weaker than expected manufacturing data on Tuesday helped offset the increase in mortgage rates, however. Friday's key labor market data had little net impact. Mortgage rates ended the week just a little higher.

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced additional stimulus measures, but the package was smaller than investors had expected. The ECB cut rates and will extend its bond purchase program by six months, but the quantity of monthly purchases will remain at $60 billion euros. Investors were looking for a large expansion of this figure. The smaller than expected package means less added demand for bonds, and bond yields around the world, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities, moved higher on the news. This caused mortgage rates to move higher.

 

While Europe and most other countries are adding stimulus, the Fed is beginning a cycle to tighten monetary policy. This has raised the value of the U.S. dollar, which increases the cost of U.S. goods for foreign consumers and hurts the U.S. manufacturing sector. This was seen on Tuesday as the ISM national manufacturing index unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level since 2009. Slower economic growth is positive for mortgage rates, because it reduces inflationary pressure, and this report caused rates to move lower.

 

Friday's important BLS employment report was a little stronger than expected. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 211K jobs in November. Upward revisions to prior months added another 35K. The Unemployment Rate remained at 5.0%. Average hourly earnings, a proxy for wage growth, were 2.3% higher than a year ago. 

 

The report caused some volatility, but it had little net effect on mortgage rates. The solid labor market data made investors nearly certain that the Fed will hike rates at the next meeting on December 16.

 

 

Next week, the second biggest report of the month, Retail Sales, will be released on Friday. Retail sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Before that, the JOLTS report will be released on Tuesday. JOLTS measures job openings and labor turnover rates, and this report is closely watched by Fed officials. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on December 4th, 2015 12:59 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Job Gains Surge

 

Comments from Fed officials and a much stronger than expected Employment report were negative for mortgage rates over the past week. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

 

Many top Fed officials made speeches over the last few days, and they shared a similar message.  As the Fed's Lockhart put it, a rate hike is possible at the next meeting on December 16, but that it is not a "certainty." Fed Chair Yellen said essentially the same thing. Each Fed official repeated that the decision will depend on the performance of the economy. 

 

With this in mind, Friday's stronger than expected Employment report caused investors to increase their expectations for a rate hike at the next Fed meeting. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 271K jobs in October, the strongest reading of the year. Upward revisions to prior months added another 12K. The average job gains over the past three months were 187K. 

 

The Unemployment Rate unexpectedly declined from 5.1% to 5.0%, the lowest level since April 2008. Average Hourly Earnings, an indicator of wage growth, also far exceeded expectations, and they were 2.5% higher than a year ago. This report revealed strength in nearly every area. 

 

 

Next week, the second biggest report of the month, Retail Sales, will be released on Friday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. Before that, the JOLTS report will be released on Thursday. JOLTS measures job openings and labor turnover rates, and this report is closely watched by Fed officials. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday. Mortgage markets will be closed on Wednesday in observance of Veterans Day. 

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on November 6th, 2015 3:28 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Mortgage Rates React to Fed

 

The statement released following Wednesday's Fed meeting was not good for mortgage rates. This week's economic data was roughly neutral. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

 

Central banks around the world have had a heavy influence on mortgage rates recently. Last week, the increased willingness of the European Central Bank (ECB) to expand its bond buying program had a favorable effect, while China's policy changes had an offsetting effect. This week, it was the U.S. Fed. Even though many recent economic reports in the U.S. contained signs of a slowing economy, the Fed statement explicitly kept the door open for a federal funds rate hike at its December meeting. The hawkish tone surprised investors and caused an unfavorable reaction in mortgage rates.

 

In the U.S., the first reading for third quarter GDP was 1.5%, down from 3.9% in the second quarter. The weakness in the third quarter was mostly due to changes in inventories, however, which are volatile from quarter to quarter. A decline in inventories offset 1.4% of growth during the third quarter, meaning that GDP would have increased nearly 3.0% if inventory levels had simply held steady. 

 

So far this year, GDP growth has averaged 2.0%. For the full year, the consensus is that GDP will grow a little above 2.0%, similar to the 2.4% growth seen in 2014. 

 

 

Next week, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, the ISM national manufacturing index and Construction Spending will be released on Monday. The ADP Employment Change and the ISM national services index will come out on Wednesday. With a possible rate hike in December, there might be a larger than usual reaction to incoming economic data. 

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: Mortgage Rates
Posted by Jonathan White on October 30th, 2015 12:07 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Foreign Central Banks

 

Foreign central banks were the main influence on U.S. mortgage rates over the past week. The news from Europe was a net positive, while China's policy change was negative. They mostly offset each other, and mortgage rates ended the week just a little higher.

 

On Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi suggested that the ECB may expand its bond purchase program at its next meeting in December. While this is intended to stimulate the economy which could lead to higher inflation, the primary impact on bonds is from increased demand. The purchase of European bonds makes other global bonds, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS), relatively more attractive, increasing their demand as well. Since mortgage rates are set based on MBS prices, rates improved after the news. The added stimulus in China to boost economic growth announced on Friday did not involve any bond purchases. As a result, the main effect for mortgage rates was to raise expectations for future inflation, which was negative. 

 

It was a solid week for the housing market data. September existing home sales increased 5% from August, near the best levels in eight years, and they were 9% higher than a year ago. Total inventory of existing homes available for sale fell to a 4.8-month supply, and it was 3% lower than a year ago. The median existing-home price was 6% higher than a year ago. 

 

September single-family housing starts have held steady over the last three months near the best levels of the year. They were 12% higher than this time last year. Single-family building permits also were up a good deal from a year ago. 

 

 

Next week, the Fed Statement will be released on Wednesday. Investors do not expect a change in policy at this meeting, and they will be looking for guidance about the timing for the first rate hike. Beyond the Fed meeting, New Home Sales will be released on Monday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Tuesday. The first reading for third quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic growth, will be released on Thursday, along with Pending Home Sales. Core PCE inflation will come out on Friday. 

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on October 23rd, 2015 2:31 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

 Stocks Rally, Rates Rise

 

Demand shifted from bonds to stocks over the past week. The economic data had little impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.

 

Under most circumstances, mortgage rates improve when stocks decline, and the reverse is true as well. We have seen an example of this relationship over the last few weeks. During the second half of September, stocks declined and mortgage rates improved. The trend has reversed, however, as the Dow has climbed about 600 points over the past week, while mortgage rates have risen.

 

There were no major surprises in the Minutes from the September 17 Fed meeting released on Thursday. The Minutes revealed that Fed officials held off on a rate hike due to uncertainty that inflation will rise to their 2.0% target level. The Minutes also noted that weakness in other countries added to the downside risk for economic growth and inflation in the U.S. Since the September 17 Fed meeting, the U.S. economic data has indicated slowing growth, justifying the Fed's decision and adding pressure for the Fed to hold rates steady longer. 

 

 

Looking ahead, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Retail Sales account for about 70% of economic activity. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Thursday. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic activity, and the JOLTS report will be released on Friday. JOLTS measures job openings and labor turnover rates. Mortgage markets will be closed on Monday in observance of Columbus Day.

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on October 9th, 2015 1:24 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Yellen Clarifies Fed Policy

 

This week, mortgage rates gave back some of the improvement seen following last week's Fed meeting. The reversal was helped along by comments from Fed Chair Yellen. Recent economic data was mixed and had little impact. Mortgage rates ended the week a little higher. 

 

On Thursday night, Fed Chair Yellen gave her first speech since the Fed meeting on September 17. She clarified many of the issues which had created uncertainty for investors. She said that she expects that a federal funds rate hike will be appropriate before the end of the year. She also reassured investors that the U.S. economy is strong enough to handle a rate hike. She noted that the impact of global economic weakness on the U.S. was not likely to be significant enough to have much influence on future Fed policy. After her speech, global stock markets rallied and mortgage rates moved higher. 

 

The housing data released over the past week was encouraging. August new home sales increased 6% from July to the highest level in over seven years. New home sales were 22% higher than a year ago. While August existing home sales decreased a little from July, they remained near multi-year highs.

 

 

Looking ahead, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, the Core PCE price index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator, and Pending Home Sales will come out on Monday. The ADP Employment Change will come out on Wednesday. The ISM national manufacturing index will be released on Thursday.

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: Mortgage Rates
Posted by Jonathan White on September 25th, 2015 1:31 PM

Mortgage Broker Blue Door Mortgage Opens Office in Newton
Move from Wellesley to Newton raises company’s visibility and improves accessibility for clients

 

Newton, MA---September 8, 2015---The move from a Wellesley office park last month, to the hub of retail activity in Newton Center, positions Blue Door Mortgage for growth in the hot home mortgage market in Massachusetts. The Company’s new address is 1280 Centre St., Newton at the corner of Beacon and Union streets. The office has parking nearby and is just one block from the Newton Centre Green Line station.

 

In less than 10 years, Blue Door Mortgage President Jonathan White and his team have handled well in excess of 3,500 residential mortgage transactions worth more than $300 million.  “Much of my business comes from referrals. We’re small enough that my colleagues and I touch every mortgage application and provide customer service that larger lenders cannot deliver,” said White. “Clients expect the best rates and terms but that’s only the beginning. The mortgage application process can be daunting.  That’s why we answer questions promptly, and work closely with real estate agents and lawyers to expedite the closing process.”

 

Upon graduation from UMass Amherst with a degree in economics, White chose a career in the mortgage business 22 years ago and he opened Blue Door Mortgage almost 10 years ago.

 

White lives in Newton with his wife and three children.

 

About Blue Door Mortgage

Blue Door Mortgage is a mortgage broker serving all of Massachusetts. For nearly a decade, the Company has helped residential customers through more than a thousand mortgage transactions worth more than $300 million. President Jonathan White has been in the mortgage business since 1993 and founded Blue Door Mortgage in 2006.

 

 

 

 

Posted in:Mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on September 18th, 2015 5:31 PM

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