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JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Mixed Inflation Data

It was a quiet week with no major surprises. Mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower.

The most significant economic data released this week was the inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, looks at the price change for finished goods and services. Friday's release revealed that inflation has continued to rise in recent months. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 2.4% higher in July, up from an annual rate of increase of 2.3% in June. This matched the consensus forecast and was the highest level since September 2008.

By contrast, the Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products, which investors view as a little less indicative of the level of inflation in the economy as a whole. On Thursday, Core PPI was 2.7% higher in July, down from an annual rate of increase of 2.8% in June, and a little lower than expected. Since inflation is negative for bond yields, this report was mildly favorable for mortgage rates.

The JOLTS report measures job openings and labor turnover rates. Fed officials and investors value this data to help round out their views of the strength of the labor market. In June, there were 6.66 million job openings, which was close to the record levels seen in April. There were only 6.56 million people who reported that they were looking for work that month. It is rare to see more job openings than people seeking work. A large number of workers also willingly left their jobs. This is viewed as a sign of labor market strength, since people usually quit only if they expect that they can find better jobs.

Looking ahead, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of all economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator of growth. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, also will come out on Wednesday. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday.

Weekly Change

Mortgage rates

fell

0.03

Dow

fell

100

NASDAQ

rose

50

Calendar

Wed

8/15

Retail Sales

Wed

8/15

Industrial Production

Thu

8/16

Housing Starts

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

To learn more about the MortgageTime newsletter, please contact MBSQuoteline at 800.627.1077 or info@mbsquoteline.com www.mbsquoteline.com. To unsubscribe click here. View online: https://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/324/6369/0/3

Posted in:Mortgage and tagged: fed rate and mortgages
Posted by Jonathan White on August 10th, 2018 11:38 AM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Fed and Data Benefit Rates

Over the past week, comments from Fed officials and weaker than expected economic data were positive for mortgage rates. After rising for the last two weeks, mortgage rates ended this week lower.

Every six months, the head of the U.S. Fed testifies before Congress. In her testimony on Wednesday, nearly all of Fed Chair Janet Yellen's comments simply reiterated what had already been communicated by Fed officials. However, she did provide one new piece of information regarding future Fed policy which caused a significant reaction. Yellen said that the Fed would not have to raise the federal funds rate "all that much further" to reach a "neutral policy stance," which is the rate which neither helps nor hinders economic growth. The practical implication of a lower "neutral" rate is that the Fed would stop raising rates sooner than investors had previously expected. A potentially smaller number of future rate hikes was viewed as good news for mortgage rates.

A shortfall in the retail sales and inflation data released on Friday also was positive for mortgage rates. Excluding the volatile auto component, retail sales in June declined for the second straight month, while the consensus was for a modest increase. This was the first period of back-to-back monthly declines since July and August of last year.

The inflation data also fell short of expectations. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, remained well below the Fed's target level of 2.0%. Expectations for another rate hike by the Fed this year declined after the release of the retail sales and inflation data.

Looking ahead, the biggest event for U.S. markets next week likely will be the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday. While ECB officials have already said that they will wait for the meeting on September 7 to announce their plans for the bond purchase program, any guidance at this meeting about future policy will affect markets around the world. It will be a light week for U.S. economic data. The NAHB housing sentiment index will be released on Tuesday. Housing Starts will come out on Wednesday. The Philadelphia Fed regional manufacturing index will be released on Friday.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted in:mortgages and tagged: fed rate and mortgages
Posted by Jonathan White on July 14th, 2017 12:15 PM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Rising Rate Hike Expectations

A shift in expectations toward a faster pace of tightening by the Fed was negative for mortgage rates this week. Stronger than expected economic data also was unfavorable. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

This week, speeches by several Fed officials were more hawkish than expected. This caused investors to expect a faster pace of monetary policy tightening. Futures markets now price in about a 75% chance of a federal funds rate hike at the next Fed meeting on March 15, up from just a 25% chance a week ago. While the federal funds rate is more highly correlated with short-term yields than with long-term yields such as mortgage rates, a faster pace of tightening is bad for mortgage rates because it likely means that the Fed will begin to reduce its holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) sooner. Fed purchases of MBS have helped mortgage rates move lower in recent years, so the shortened expected timeline for reduced demand from the Fed caused mortgage rates to rise.

One reason that Fed officials may be inclined to hike rates this month is that recently released economic data has generally continued to surpass expectations. Since the election, both consumers and businesses appear to be more optimistic about the economic outlook. The February measure of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board rose to the highest level since 2001.

The ISM national manufacturing index increased to 57.7, the highest level since August 2014. Readings above 50 indicate an expansion in the sector. As recently as August, the index was below 50. The ISM national services index also rose more than expected to 57.6, the best reading since April 2015. Stronger economic activity raises future inflationary pressure, which is bad for mortgage rates.

Looking ahead, there will be a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. No policy changes are expected, but guidance about the outlook for future policy could influence U.S. markets. In the U.S., the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, this report on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted in:mortgages and tagged: fed rate and mortgages
Posted by Jonathan White on March 3rd, 2017 5:15 PM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Focus on Europe

It was another volatile week for mortgage markets. Uncertainty about the outcome of the elections in Europe had a positive influence on U.S. mortgage rates. The Fed minutes and the economic data had little net effect. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week lower.

One source of volatility is uncertainty about the outcome of upcoming elections in several European countries. Investors are most focused on the presidential election in France which will take place on April 23. Polls show a close race between Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron. Le Pen's campaign has been centered on plans for France to leave the EU and to stop using the euro currency, while the centrist Macron has run on a more traditional platform. It is not clear what would happen to the EU if France decided to exit. As a result, investors have reacted by shifting to safer assets after news which favors a Le Pen victory and doing the opposite after positive news for Macron. Since U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are viewed as relatively safer assets, they have been affected by the shifts in sentiment, causing volatility. The net effect on mortgage rates for the week was positive.

The Fed was another source of volatility this week. On Wednesday, the Fed released the minutes from the February 1 Fed meeting. Concerned that the Fed might talk about a need to reduce its holdings of MBS, investors pushed mortgage rates a little higher ahead of the release of the minutes. When the minutes made little mention of this topic, investors later reversed their positions, resulting in little net change.

Home sales begin the year on a strong note. In January sales of previously owned homes rose to the highest level since February 2007. Sales might have been even better if inventory levels had been higher. Total inventory of existing homes for sale remained near record low levels with just a 3.6-month supply.

Looking ahead, Pending Home Sales and Durable Orders will come out on Monday. The Core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Wednesday. The ISM national manufacturing index also will come out on Wednesday, and the ISM national services index will be released on Friday. Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to speak on Friday as well. The next Employment report will come out on March 10 (due to February being a shorter month).

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted in:mortgages and tagged: fed rate and mortgages
Posted by Jonathan White on February 24th, 2017 11:53 AM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Sentiment Remains High

Last Friday's Employment report left investors feeling good about buying bonds, and mortgage rates improved over the first half of this week. An announcement from President Trump on Thursday was negative for bonds, however, and a partial reversal took place. After a couple of weeks with relatively little net change, mortgage rates ended this week a little lower.

The much weaker than expected wage growth in the Employment report released on February 3 eased investor concerns about future inflation. Lower inflation increases the value of future cash flows from bonds. With little economic news early in the week, investors purchased bonds, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). Since mortgage rates are set based on MBS prices, rates declined.

On Thursday, President Trump said to expect an announcement about tax cuts in two to three weeks. Mortgage rates moved a little higher after the comment. There are a couple of reasons why tax cuts are viewed as negative for mortgage rates. The first is that tax cuts increase the wealth of the affected individuals or businesses. As they spend some of this money, it boosts economic activity, which in turn raises the outlook for future inflation. The second reason is that tax cuts increase the budget deficit, at least initially. This means that the government has to issue more Treasury bonds to fund the deficit. The added supply reduces the value of bonds, including MBS.

The report on Consumer Sentiment released on Friday showed that consumers remained optimistic about economic activity. While the reading was a little below the 13-year high seen last month, it was still quite high by historical standards. This survey from the University of Michigan measures the level of optimism or pessimism about current and future economic conditions.

Looking ahead, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation report, also will come out on Wednesday. CPI looks at the price change for goods and services which are purchased by consumers. Housing Starts will be released on Thursday. In addition, Fed Vice Chair Fisher will be speaking on Saturday morning, and Fed Chair Yellen will deliver her semi-annual testimony to Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted by Jonathan White on February 10th, 2017 12:39 PM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Fed Projects Faster Pace of Hikes

Wednesday's Fed meeting turned out to be negative for mortgage rates. Recent economic data had little impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

As widely expected, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. Unfortunately for MBS, Fed officials also raised their outlook for the pace of future rate hikes. They now forecast three rate hikes in 2017, one more than previously projected. The faster pace was viewed as negative for mortgage rates. But why? The purpose for raising the federal funds rate is to keep inflation from rising above the Fed's target of 2%. This should be a good thing for mortgage rates.

Part of the reason for the adverse reaction stems from a more direct effect the Fed has on mortgage rates. The Fed owns over $1.7 trillion of the agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that it purchased during its quantitative easing (QE) days. The Fed keeps the balance of MBS around that level by buying new MBS to replace that which pays off. The Fed is currently the buyer of approximately 25%of all newly issued MBS. This added demand from the Fed drives MBS prices higher and mortgage rates lower. The Fed says that it will not allow its holdings of MBS to decline until "normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way." When that will be is hard to say, but the faster they raise the federal funds rate, the sooner their demand for new MBS will be removed.

On Thursday, the December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) housing index showed that home builder confidence jumped from 63 to 70, far above the consensus, and the highest level since 2005. According to the NAHB, home builders are optimistic that the Trump administration will "reduce costly regulatory burdens."

Looking ahead, there will be a meeting of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday which could influence U.S. mortgage rates. In the U.S., Existing Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. Durable Orders and Core PCE will come out on Thursday. Core PCE is the inflation indicator favored by the Fed. New Home Sales will be released on Friday. Mortgage markets will close early on Friday in observance of Christmas.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted by Jonathan White on December 16th, 2016 12:16 PM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Three Central Bank Meetings

Over the past week, the meeting of the Bank of England and news related to the U.S. election were the main influences on mortgage rates. The U.S. economic data had little impact. The net result was that mortgage rates ended the week a little lower.

Three major central banks had meetings over the past week, and none of them made any policy changes. In the case of the U.S. Fed and the Bank of Japan, this was the expected outcome. However, investors were disappointed that the Bank of England (BOE) held rates steady and downplayed the likelihood of further rate cuts. Bond purchases from central banks around the world have helped push global bond yields lower in recent years, so this indication from the BOE that there may be less future stimulus than expected caused yields to rise on Thursday, including U.S. mortgage rates.

As expected, the Fed made no change in policy and few changes in its statement. The statement suggested that the economy is closer to the threshold required to increase the federal funds rate. Fed officials also expressed more confidence that inflation will rise to its target level of 2.0% "over the medium term."

The economy added 161K jobs in October, a little below the consensus of 175K. However, upward revisions added 44K jobs to the results for prior months. Investors focused more on wage growth, which rose more than expected. Average hourly earnings were 2.8% higher than a year ago, which was the largest annual increase since June 2009.

Over the past week, there were many news stories about the two candidates in the U.S. election, and some of these stories had a noticeable effect on mortgage rates. Generally, news which favors a Trump victory has been positive for bonds and negative for stocks. News which favors a Clinton victory has caused the opposite reaction.

Looking ahead, the U.S. election likely will continue to influence mortgage rates. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The economic calendar will be very light. The JOLTS report, which measures job openings and labor turnover rates, will be released on Tuesday. Consumer Sentiment will come out on Friday. While the stock market will be open, mortgage markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Veterans Day.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted by Jonathan White on November 4th, 2016 12:05 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Dovish Speech from Yellen

 

Despite the release of a wide range of major economic data, a speech from Fed Chair Yellen had the biggest influence on mortgage rates over the past week. Her comments were favorable for both stocks and bonds, and mortgage rates ended the week lower. 

 

Since the March 16 Fed meeting, several Fed officials have expressed support for tightening monetary policy at a more rapid pace. In Tuesday's speech, Yellen laid out reasons that the Fed should take a very gradual approach to tightening monetary policy. According to Yellen, economic troubles in other countries pose downside risks to the U.S. economy. She also said that it is unclear if the recent pickup in core inflation will be sustained or whether it was due to temporary factors. Yellen's message about an outlook for low inflation and a longer expected timeline for tightening by the Fed was good news for mortgage rates.

 

There were few surprises in the important monthly employment report released on Friday, and it caused little reaction. Against a consensus forecast of 210K, the economy added 215K jobs in March. This is close to the average monthly pace seen over the past year. 

 

The unemployment rate edged up from 4.9% to 5.0%. The higher rate was mostly due to people entering the workforce, which is a sign of strength. Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, rose 0.3% from February, matching expectations. The vast majority of the job gains came in the service sector, while manufacturing continued to shed jobs.

 

 

Looking ahead, Factory Orders will be released on Monday. The ISM national services index and the JOLTS report will come out on Tuesday. JOLTS measures job openings and labor turnover rates. The Fed minutes from the March 16 meeting will be released on Wednesday. These detailed minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials and have the potential to significantly move markets.

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted by Jonathan White on April 1st, 2016 12:31 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Fed Changes Guidance

 

Wednesday's Fed meeting resulted in positive news for mortgage rates. Mixed economic data released over the past week was roughly neutral. Mortgage rates ended the week lower. 

 

As expected, the Fed did not change the federal funds rate. However, the statement contained guidance which reduced the expected number of rate hikes in 2016 from four to two. Reasons for this included a downgraded outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation, as well as concerns about the pace of global economic growth. The statement was good news for mortgage rates, as this guidance pushes tighter monetary policy further into the future, including the expected timeline for the Fed to begin to reduce its large holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasuries. The added demand for MBS from the Fed helps to keep mortgage rates low. 

 

Fed officials have stated that they would like to see inflation rise to their target level of 2.0%. After holding steady for most of 2015, core inflation has increased pretty quickly over the last few months. In February, the core consumer price index (CPI), a widely followed inflation measure, unexpectedly rose to an annual rate of 2.3%, the highest level since May 2012. Core inflation excludes the volatile food and energy components. 

 

However, Fed officials prefer a different monthly indicator, the core PCE price index. This index measures a broader scope of prices and rebalances the category weightings more frequently than CPI. The most recent reading for core PCE showed a 1.7% annual rate in January. The results for February will be released on March 28. Core PCE has generally run about half a point lower than core CPI.

 

 

Looking ahead, Existing Home Sales will be released on Monday, and New Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will be released on Thursday. The third estimate of fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will come out on Friday. 

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted by Jonathan White on March 18th, 2016 3:38 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

ECB Adds Stimulus 

 

The big event over the past week was Thursday's ECB meeting. The stimulus measures announced by the ECB made investors more willing to own riskier assets such as stocks, which was negative for safer assets such as bonds. The small amount of U.S. economic data released over the past week had little impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher. 

 

The European Central Bank (ECB) added to its stimulus program to help boost economic growth and raise inflation. The actions included cutting key interest rates and increasing the size of its asset purchase program to 80 billion euros each month from 60 billion previously. Increased demand for bonds from the ECB helps keep down yields around the world, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These measures were essentially in line with investor expectations, however, so their effect on mortgage rates had already been factored in. 

 

The ECB also announced other changes designed to help the banking sector, and these were unexpected. These measures made riskier assets such as stocks more appealing to investors. When investors show a preference for adding risk, they often reduce their exposure to safer assets, including MBS, which is not good for mortgage rates. 

 

While recent readings have shown that inflation is rising, one area has continued to exert downward pressure. The cost of imported goods dropped in February for the eighth straight month. A big reason for this has been the decline in the price of oil. Even excluding oil, the cost of other imported goods has been dropping. Lower prices for imported goods reduce inflation, which is positive for mortgage rates.

 

 

Looking ahead, there will be a Fed meeting and press conference on Wednesday. No change in the federal funds rate is expected, but the comments from the Fed could have a significant impact. Before that, Retail Sales will be released on Tuesday. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator. Housing Starts, Industrial Production, and CPI will come out on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, looks at the price change for goods and services which are sold to consumers.

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

To learn more about the Mortgage Time newsletter, please contact MBSQuoteline at 800.627.1077 or info@mbsquoteline.com www.mbsquoteline.com. To unsubscribe click here. View online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/194/6369/0/3

Posted in:mortgages and tagged: fed rate and mortgages
Posted by Jonathan White on March 11th, 2016 12:35 PM

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