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Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

U.S. and EU Take a Step Back

The main influence on mortgage rates this week was fresh news about tariffs, which was negative for mortgage rates. The major economic data came in mostly on target, and Thursday's European Central Bank meeting contained no policy changes and had just a minor impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended a little higher.

On Thursday, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. and the European Union (EU) had agreed not to escalate their trade dispute. Neither will impose further tariffs while the two sides attempt to work out their differences. If the U.S. and the EU can come to terms, it would allow them to work together to focus on improved trade agreements with other countries, most notably China. Investors reacted to the reduced chances of a trade war by shifting to riskier assets such as stocks from safer assets such as bonds, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The decrease in demand for MBS caused mortgage rates to rise a little.

Friday's release of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic growth, showed a massive increase of 4.1%, which was close to the expected levels. This was up from 2.2% during the first quarter and was the highest reading since the third quarter of 2014. Strength was seen in both consumer spending and business investment. Investors now will be watching to see if the underlying trend is closer to the first quarter or the second quarter levels.

Looking ahead, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, the Core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Tuesday. The ISM national manufacturing index will come out on Wednesday, and the ISM national services index will come out on Friday. The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in policy is expected.

Weekly Change

Mortgage rates

rose

0.03

Dow

rose

500

NASDAQ

fell

10

Calendar

Mon

7/30

Core PCE

Wed

8/1

Fed Meeting

Fri

8/3

Employment

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted in:mortgages and tagged: home mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on July 27th, 2018 6:26 PM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Mixed Employment Data

The main influence on mortgage rates this week was Friday's Employment report which was viewed on balance as a little weaker than expected. The Fed minutes and the other data had just a minor impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended lower.

Against a consensus forecast of 190,000, the economy gained 213,000 jobs in June. In addition, upward revisions added 37,000 jobs to the results for prior months. The economy has gained an average of 215,000 jobs per month so far this year, exceeding even the strong pace of 182,000 seen over this period last year.

The unemployment rate increased from an 18-year low of 3.8% to 4.0%, above the consensus for a flat reading of 3.8%. There are two factors which influence the unemployment rate, and June's increase was due to a surge of workers entering the labor force rather than job losses, so this actually was viewed as a sign of strength.

Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, fell slightly short of expectations. They were 2.7% higher than a year ago, the same annual rate of increase as last month. Overall, the shortfall in wage growth was viewed by investors as more significant than the strong job gains, and mortgage rates moved a little lower after the data.

The minutes from the June 13 Fed meeting released on Thursday contained no major surprises and caused little reaction for mortgage rates. Noteworthy, though, Fed officials discussed both upside and downside risks to the economy. They pointed to the recent tax cuts as a potential source of support for economic growth in coming years, but also the risk that increased trade tensions could slow future investment activity, which would be negative for the economy.

Looking ahead, the inflation data will get the most attention. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Thursday. CPI looks at the price change for finished goods and services. In addition, Treasury auctions on Wednesday and Thursday could influence mortgage rates.

Weekly Change

Mortgage rates

fell

0.05

Dow

rose

100

NASDAQ

rose

100

Calendar

Wed

7/11

PPI

Wed

7/11

10-yr Auction

Thu

7/12

CPI

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted by Jonathan White on July 6th, 2018 11:59 AM

Compliments of

JonathanWhite

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton,MA02459

Fed Officials Debate Inflation

Comments from Fed officials caused some volatility this week but had little net effect. The economic data caused little reaction. Mortgage rates ended the week nearly unchanged, close to the best levels of the year.

Last week's weak inflation data had Fed officials talking this week. To the surprise of many, inflation has declined during each of the last few months. Fed officials seem divided on how to react. Some consider the recent decline transitory and want to continue monetary tightening. Others question this and want to slow things down. On Monday, New York Fed President Dudley said that he thinks rising wages will push inflation higher and that to slow the current pace of monetary tightening could do harm to the economy. On Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Evans said that the Fed "can afford" to wait "a little bit" to see if inflation moves higher. The debate caused some market volatility.

The existing-home sales data from the National Association of Realtors released on Wednesday revealed that a shortage of inventory continued to be an issue in May. Total inventory of existing homes available for sale was significantly lower than a year ago and was at just a 4.2-month supply. A 6-month supply is considered a nice balance between buyers and sellers. The low supply of inventory and robust buyer demand caused prices to rise and properties to be sold very quickly. The median existing-home price reached a record high in May, and it took just 27 days on average for properties to be sold. This was the shortest duration since tracking began in 2011.

Even with a low level of inventory in many markets, existing-home sales in May rose a little from April to the third highest level over the past twelve months. Sales of new homes, which make up roughly 10% of the market, also climbed in May, and the median price of new homes rose to a record high as well.

Looking ahead, Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Monday. Pending Home Sales will be released on Wednesday. The Core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will come out on Friday. In addition, there will be Treasury auctions on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

Posted by Jonathan White on June 23rd, 2017 11:52 AM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Shift in Outlook for Fed Policy

 

Stronger than expected economic data and a shift in expectations for Fed policy were negative for mortgage rates over the past week. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher.

 

Speeches made by Fed officials during the first part of the week alerted investors that the Fed may be much closer to another federal funds rate hike than investors expected. On Wednesday, the release of the minutes from the April 27 Fed meeting confirmed this. In the minutes, Fed officials made it clear that they will consider raising rates as soon as June if economic conditions continue to improve. Investors currently view tighter Fed policy as negative for mortgage rates, so rates rose as the Fed's position became better understood.

 

One factor supporting the case for tighter monetary policy is stronger than expected improvement in the recent housing data. Existing home sales in April rose for the second straight month and were 6% higher than a year ago. Inventories of existing homes available for sale jumped 9% from March. Sales of existing homes make up about 90% of the market. Housing starts, an indicator of future sales activity for newly built homes, increased 7% in April from March. 

 

Complicating the decision for the Fed a little is the recent inflation data. The core consumer price index (CPI) in April was 2.1% higher than a year ago, down from a multi-year high of 2.3% in February. After rising significantly for several months, core inflation has declined for the last two months. If this trend continues, it would make the Fed less likely to raise rates. 

 

 

Looking ahead, the new home sales data will be released on Tuesday. Durable orders and the pending home sales data will come out on Thursday. The second estimate of first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic growth, will be released on Friday. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Several Fed officials are scheduled to make speeches next week as well. Mortgage markets will close early on Friday in observance of Memorial Day. 

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted by Jonathan White on May 20th, 2016 12:25 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Retail Sales Jump 

 

The economic data released over the past week was generally better than expected. Strength was seen in retail sales, the labor market, and consumer sentiment. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week a little higher, but they remain near the best levels of the year. 

 

After a slow start to the year, Friday's report on retail sales went a long way to increase optimism about stronger economic growth during the second quarter. April retail sales, excluding the volatile auto component, jumped 0.8% from March, which was far more than expected. It was the largest monthly gain in nearly a year. The results for March also were revised higher. 

 

Despite what appeared to be a weak report on jobless claims, this week's labor market data was encouraging. A spike in jobless claims was seen, but this was due to a strike at Verizon. Nice gains were seen in the JOLTS report, which measures job openings and labor turnover rates. The JOLTS report helps to provide a broader picture of the performance of the labor market. Job openings in March increased to levels which were very close to record highs. The "quits rate" also was at levels consistent with a healthy labor market. Employees are more likely to voluntarily leave their jobs if they are confident that they will find a better job.

 

 

Looking ahead, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a widely followed monthly inflation report, will come out on Tuesday. CPI looks at the price change for goods and services which are sold to consumers. The Fed Minutes from the April 27 meeting will come out on Wednesday. These detailed minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials and have the potential to significantly move markets. Existing Home Sales will be released on Friday. 

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted by Jonathan White on May 13th, 2016 12:59 PM

 

Compliments of

Jonathan White

President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443

Blue Door Mortgage, LLC

NMLS: 2218

Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)

jwhiteloan@bluedoormortgage.com
www.bluedoormortgage.com

1280 Centre Street

Newton, MA 02459

     

 

Strong Job Gains

 

A wide range of major U.S. economic data was released over the past week covering the labor market, manufacturing, services, and housing. Overall, the data suggested that U.S. economic growth and inflation were a little stronger than expected. As a result, mortgage rates ended the week higher. 

 

Friday's Employment report showed that job gains remained strong. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 242K jobs in February. Upward revisions to prior months added another 30K. The economy has added an average of 228K jobs per month over the last three months. The Unemployment Rate remained at 4.9%, as expected.

 

Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, declined slightly from January, well below the consensus for a modest increase. After a concerning rise in wages in January, the decline in February was good news for mortgage rates and partially offset the negative effect of the strong job gains.

 

The February ISM national manufacturing survey released on Tuesday indicated that things may be turning a little more positive for this sector. The survey rose to the best level in five months. For mortgage rates, one component of the survey was concerning. The prices paid component measures the change in the prices that manufacturers charge. In February, the survey on prices paid revealed a much higher reading than was expected, hinting at rising inflation. This follows significant increases in the recent broad-based monthly inflation measures. Mortgage rates are highly influenced by the outlook for future inflation. As inflation expectations rise, so do mortgage rates. 

 

 

Looking ahead, the biggest event next week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. It is expected that the ECB will announce additional stimulus measures, which could include an expansion of its bond purchase program. Very little U.S. economic data will be released next week. Import Prices will come out on Friday. There will be Treasury auctions on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

 

 

All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.

 

 

 

Posted in:mortgages and tagged: home mortgage
Posted by Jonathan White on March 4th, 2016 3:43 PM

The Federal Reserve has raised its federal funds rate by a quarter of a percentage point for the first time since 2006. The most immediate effect will be on short-term interest rates such as adjustable rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit.  The Fed can control short-term interest rates, but it can’t control long-term interest rates. 

Long-term rates are affected in part by the inflationary expectations of investors in the marketplace and, in general, mortgage rates will increase if the economy improves.

Regardless of this rate increase, interest rates continue to be at historical lows and the Fed reported that any additional increase would be gradual.


Posted by Jonathan White on December 18th, 2015 4:53 PM
Don’t fret when picking out a mortgage. These 7 steps can save you time and money.

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Posted by Jonathan White on October 29th, 2015 11:17 AM

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