Mortgage Market News for the week ended August 03, 2018
President and CEO Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443
Blue Door Mortgage, LLC
Call: 617.527.BLUE (2583)
1280 Centre Street
While there was major economic data released this week and a Fed meeting, there were no significant surprises. Mortgage rates ended the week a little higher.
Friday's key Employment report came in pretty much right on target across the board. Against a consensus forecast of 190,000, the economy gained 157,000 jobs in July. However, upward revisions added 59,000 jobs to the results for prior months. The economy has gained an average of 215,000 jobs per month so far this year, exceeding even the strong pace of 184,000 seen over this period last year.
The unemployment rate decreased from 4.0% to 3.9%, matching expectations. Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, also matched expectations. They were 2.7% higher than a year ago, the same annual rate of increase as last month.
As expected, the Fed made no policy changes at Wednesday's meeting. The Fed's statement was very similar to the prior one from the June meeting. The most notable change in the statement was that Fed officials modestly upgraded their assessment of the pace of economic growth. In particular, the statement said that economic activity "has been rising at a strong rate," while the prior statement described it as "solid." In addition, Fed officials noted that household spending and business investment have "grown strongly." In June, they just said that it had "picked up." Investors expect that the Fed will raise the federal funds for the third time this year at the next meeting on September 26.
Looking ahead, the JOLTS report, which measures job openings and labor turnover rates, will be released on Wednesday. Fed officials value this data to help round out its view of the strength of the labor market. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will come out on Friday. CPI is a widely followed monthly inflation report that looks at the price change for goods and services. In addition, Treasury auctions on Wednesday and Thursday could influence mortgage rates.
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Mortgage Market News for the week ending February 26,
President and CEO
Mortgage Broker | NMLS ID: 3443
Newton, MA 02459
U.S. economic data released over the past week was stronger than
expected. Upside surprises were seen in GDP, durable orders, housing,
and inflation. The impact on mortgage rates was small, however, and
rates ended the week just a little higher.
The Core PCE
price index is the monthly inflation indicator preferred by the Fed,
and the readings for January showed that inflation is rising more
quickly than expected. Last week's CPI inflation report contained a
which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 1.7%
higher than a year ago, up from 1.3% just two months ago, and the
highest level since February 2013. Low levels of inflation have
helped keep mortgage rates low. If the trend toward higher inflation
continues, it would be negative for mortgage rates.
data released over the past week was mixed, but the much more
significant report was encouraging. January existing home sales, which
make up about 90% of all home sales, increased to near the best level
in seven years. They were 11% higher than a year ago. New home
sales, which make up the rest of the market, declined in January. Low
mortgage rates and solid job gains are having a nice effect on home
quarter GDP was revised higher from 0.7% to 1.0%, above the consensus
for a decline to 0.4%. GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity,
recently has been volatile from quarter to quarter. The
consensus is that 2016 will start on a better note. First quarter GDP
growth is expected to rise to 2.0%, well above the levels seen during
the first quarters of 2014 and 2015.
ahead, the important monthly Employment report will be released
on Friday. As usual, this data on the number of jobs, the Unemployment
Rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic
data of the month. Before that, Pending Home Sales will be released on
Monday. The ISM national manufacturing index will come out on Tuesday,
and the ISM national services index will come out on Thursday.
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reproduced without permission.
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Mortgage Time newsletter, please contact MBSQuoteline at 800.627.1077 or firstname.lastname@example.org
here. View online: http://www.mbsquoteline.com/newsletter/view/191/6369/0/3
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